About this Paper
In the past few years, Pakistan has gone through immense turmoil and change owing which a requirement for an alternative policy has been felt significantly. Since Pakistan’s current policy is largely focused on maintaining a status-quo, it is by and large, ineffective and passive. This paper aims to reconsider and restructure Pakistan’s existing national and foreign policy by focusing on core issues and challenges. It will make efforts in analyzing Pakistan’s current situation as an outcome of alien polices (resulting in forced compromises) and make recommendations on securing Pakistan from its immediate and long term challenges.
Motivation and Reasoning
The fundamental motivation behind producing this paper is the severe, unjust and subjective targeting of Pakistan on international scene. The factual reasoning is that since Pakistan promises to sprout an Islamic socio-political-economic system, it is conceived as a direct threat by western civilization and is therefore, being rapidly undermined by anti-Pakistan forces. Also, due to anti-Pakistanism, Pakistani nation has become a victim of international bias, betrayal and malevolent alien policies. These forced policies and compromises, over time have proven to weaken Pakistan and its national security and therefore need to be replaced comprehensively and urgently. This paper also aims to reinforce the idea that Pakistan’s current problems are because of non implementation of its ideology and as long as Pakistan’s ideology is not implemented, these problems will remain. Therefore, the only way Pakistan can be wholly strengthened by empowering its inherent ideology and constitution.
Pakistan: A History of Foreign Intervention
Despite inheriting huge problems of hostility, infrastructure, economy, defense, education, health and more, Pakistan over time formidably transformed itself into a promising country by making huge strides. But ever since becoming known as a country, Pakistan started facing challenges of foreign intervention. The most apparent reason for this was the west (and anti-Islamic forces) taking the ideology of Pakistan as a threat of Islamic renaissance. As a result, Pakistan faced interference both in its political and military institutions. But most importantly, Pakistan greatest suffering has been this foreign hindrance keeping Pakistan from implementing its Islamic ideology.
A large part of this foreign intervention in Pakistan has been played by USA. USA intervened in Pakistan to make sure that neither the military nor the political setup of Pakistan prospers or delivers effectively. Whenever Pakistan started to strengthen under military or political leadership, USA used the other to put a halt to the stability. In this, USA made certain that only its policies are implemented without deviation. And when someone did deviate in the interest of country, he (or she) was eliminated. The fates of many murdered leaders speak clearly. These leaders were eliminated for taking initiatives that challenged American (and in essence Israeli interests) in Pakistan. But while it is true that Pakistan’s problems have been outsider’s created, if someone has to be blamed inside Pakistan, it is largely an inefficient political leadership of Pakistan that to this day is responsible for importing American policies. Due to this, the only policies that eventually make it to effect in Pakistan are nonetheless incomprehensive and responsive.
Pakistan is at dearth of policies and before anything, it must realize the importance and role of policies for a country and that its policies must come for and from its own (loyal) people. A stronger Pakistan needs polices that are comprehensive, uncompromisingly pro-Pakistan and proactive. This can only be done by empowering people who are loyal to Pakistan and its ideology. It does not matter where the policies originate from. But more importantly, the responsibility of running the government will also lie on the policy makers alone. Pakistan will have to disallow all other forces (including its current politicians who have mostly failed in finding common grounds and providing a formidable policy for Pakistan) to rule the country. This is so because, if Pakistani politicians cannot get past their personal feud in interest of the country, they cannot be allowed to rule Pakistan – anymore. Pakistan has to revive its politics by authorizing pro-Pakistan civilians. Pakistani nation must also realize that Pakistan’s existence can only be guaranteed by empowering its ideology. Until this is done, Pakistanis will keep wondering what went wrong with Pakistan.
9/11 and its Repercussions on Pakistan
In the events following 9/11, Pakistan became the leading non-NATO US ally in war on terror. It offered USA extensively with moral support, logistics, intelligence sharing and more. The USA in return promised to strengthen Pakistan by providing it with its defence and economic needs (strengthen is the keyword here). Pakistan was hopeful of benefiting mutually by creating an alliance similar to the one against Soviet Union, but has the alliance really proved so and has the USA really done so is something to be considered strongly.
Economic indicators tell a sad tale for Pakistan. After nearly a decade of alliance with USA, Pakistan is still far from seeing fruits of its relationship. In the last ten years, Pakistan has witnessed stern increases in inflation, defence budgets, economic fragility, taxing, industry shutdown and general civil unrest. In the year 2000-2001, Pakistan’s annual rate of inflation was 4.41% (CPI). It stood at 24.43% in 2009. If only monetary losses are accounted for, the American war on terror has cost Pakistan in excess of 35 billion $. These are the safest figures given by the foreign ministry of Pakistan. Actual figures could be in excess of 100 billion $. And no matter what reasons may be put as excuses, for Pakistan this has eventually come as a result of fighting a US inflicted unaffordable war. And for Pakistan, this loss has showed in the economy and defence spending, both of which have been severely damaged. The effects have trickled down into the society that has compensated for American fondness for war by sacrificing its own pocket and blood. In other words, Pakistan’s very security has been challenged. The mistrust and double standards of USA are evident in the fact that the so-called weaponry provided to Pakistan is inadequate and comes with strict conditions and limitations, so strict that even though the weaponry is Pakistan’s requirement for defence, American conditions state that it cannot be used to defend Pakistan against an aggression. As a result of this and insufficiency of supplies, Pakistan also has to use munitions and weaponry from its war stocks. In 2009, Pakistan had used up all its laser guided munitions.
In retrospect, it can be said that 9/11 materialized as the most influential event of current times. For Pakistan in particular, the event meant everything. From its policies to people, everything got affected by this one event. Pakistan’s decision to ally with USA after 9/11 has put Pakistan in a weaker state today and whereas the alliance with USA was taken up in best interests of Pakistan to reinforce it. If this has not proven to be so, perhaps the moment of truth has come for Pakistan. How Pakistan wants to secure itself in the coming days will fundamentally depend on one thing: its future decisions on how to balance and manage its alliance with USA.
Immediate Challenges Faced by Pakistan
Pakistan faces a number of challenges today. These challenges have come as a result of American pressure and Pakistani compromises made over time. For Pakistan to secure itself, its leadership must first and urgently focus on neutralizing these challenges. These challenges should be Pakistan’s top priority to assure its national security.
Deteriorating Economy and Defence
Economy and defence are critical to a country and its survival. Together these two aspects decide how weak or strong a country can become. If any one of these two is sufficiently weakened, the very survival of that country can be said to be put at stake. On the other hand, if sufficiently strengthened, these two together can put any country on track of becoming a superpower.
In the past few years, Pakistan has seen stern targeting on these two lines under the rule of a US imposed government. It has seen widespread corruption and has been constantly pressurized and threatened to do more by launching military operations throughout the country. Pakistan has suffered by being a victim of fake inflation, deliberate and massive shutdown of industry, undisclosed deals with IMF/World Bank and the do more US mantra. In parallel to that, Pakistan has constantly been painted it as a failed state by its ally. This is for sufficiently weakening Pakistan (morally and physically) before it can be taken as an excuse to be overrun under UN umbrella.
If Pakistan is to survive, its establishment must realize the plans working against it. It will have to strictly disallow (sufficient) weakening of either its economy or defence. Also, since these two aspects are directly related to Pakistan’s survival, the establishment should not view economy and defence separately i.e. considering economy a non-relevant issue to defence. Pakistan must strengthen its economy and make sure that its thresholds are not traversed. Pakistan will have to more strongly exploit its interests and relationship with China and other countries to boost the economy. In addition to that, Pakistan must make sure that its defence is oriented entirely and only towards protecting the country from outsiders and not people within. To make sure this, Pakistan must work towards further advancing its weapon and defence systems. Pakistan’s nuclear program is the key to Pakistan’s deterrence and survival and must not be compromised on.
A Flawed US Strategy in Afghanistan
A decade of US-led war in Afghanistan has failed to produce desired results. USA has failed to achieve its objectives in Afghanistan – objectives it primarily started a war for. Even in almost ten years, USA has evidently failed to capture any major Al-Qaeda operatives including Osama Bin Laden despite noting several times that he is hiding in the region. No investigations have been carried out on 9/11 attacks. USA has also most evidently failed to eliminate terrorism in the region. In fact, due to a flawed American strategy and lack of regional understanding, a country has been (yet again) torn apart, instability soared, terrorism found new forms, crime surged unchecked, war expenses ascended sharply and lessons not drawn. USA has fought and sustained this war on verbal victories and false information. Unfortunately for Pakistan, this flawed American strategy has put it at stake due to which it is apparent that America lacks sufficient understanding of the region unlike Pakistan. The past once decade has not seen American operations in Afghanistan able to pull off a concrete victory that can be compared to Pakistan’s victories in Swat and South Waziristan (which also answered the American propaganda of Pakistan falling to terrorism).
According to Pakistan Army, a flawed military doctrine pursued by the West in Afghanistan led to the Taliban nearly taking over Pakistan’s tribal regions. This flawed strategy and an alliance forged onto it is proving to be lethal for Pakistan. To effectively counter this, USA needs to consider the fact that Pakistan is local and US alien to the region and therefore, Pakistan has experience as well as capability (as has been proven unquestionably by Pakistani military operations) to lead the war and bring stability to the region. Therefore, unless USA takes a role of fighting the war on Pakistan’s lead and strategy, the war on terror will see no logical end. For Pakistan, a flawed strategy means a fool’s strategy. It cannot lead itself to suicide by following an incompetent and flawed strategy. Pakistan must reconsider its alliance with USA and ask it to pursue Pakistan’s approach towards eliminating terrorism from the region. If USA rebuffs the idea, it will only be a matter of time before Pakistan will have to disengage itself from a flawed war, all to secure its interests eventually.
Balkanization on Ethnic Lines
Balkanization of Pakistan on ethnic lines has been planned since its early days. The US government, in its plans for Balkanization of Pakistan, envisions disintegrating Pakistan into several autonomous regions by 2020. In 2006, balkanized maps of Pakistan were officially floated by the US government and used by American forces in their armed forces exercises.
The following map was prepared by Lieutenant-Colonel Ralph Peters (retired colonel of the U.S. National War Academy). It was published in the Armed Forces Journal in June 2006.
Although the map does not officially reflect Pentagon doctrine, it has been used in a training program at NATO’s Defense College for senior military officers. This map, as well as other similar maps, has been used at the National War Academy as well as in military planning circles.
These and other similar maps are an evident depiction of American plans for Pakistan in the 21st century. To successfully avert the challenge of balkanization on ethnic lines, Pakistan must strongly and actively exert its control over the federation. Since a large responsibility of that lies on the government, Pakistan (the establishment and the people, for that matter) must first work towards bringing a pro-Pakistan pro-Islamic government to power using means of smart coups. Such a government will engage all provinces of Pakistan more actively so as to encourage greater harmony amongst them.
To cause balkanization, Pakistan is being infiltrated by external agencies and monies being pumped by CIA-RAW-MOSAD to turn the locals against Pakistani federation. India has used the Bangladesh book on Pakistan as-it-is. It is supporting destabilization and insurgency in Pakistan by buying authorities, turning locals and innocent population against the federation and carrying out insurgency and killing to create general chaos. Pakistan must learn from its mistakes and arrest the situation before it’s too late. This cancer must not be allowed to develop into untreatable pain. As mentioned earlier, Pakistan must exert its greater control over the country and actively engage itself in the region to make sure plans against it do no materialize.
Ideological Breakup
Pakistan defines its ideology as Islam and its ideology is its greatest strength. At the same time, however, it is also its greatest weakness. The Islamic principles of social, political and economic justice are directly taken by the west as a threat of caliphate, also declared by American officials after the fall of Soviet Union. Since then, USA has been consistently working to halt the realization of Islamic ideology in the world and in Pakistan, in particular.
To breakup Pakistan ideologically, India has played a critical role. Playing on the lines of Chankya, India has over time injected and infiltrated Pakistan with Hindu and non-Muslim culture, in an effort to diminish and undermine the ideology of Pakistan. Furthermore, to keep Pakistan from realizing its ideology, its founders have been painted as secular and unreligious. At this time, Pakistan is going through a critically transitional phase. It is in Pakistan’s urgent and utmost interest to find its refuge in the ideology of Pakistan as envisioned by the founders of Pakistan. Without that, Pakistan will continue to struggle in finding success or even existence.
To secure its ideology being disorientated via media, Pakistan will have to move towards tighter media checks and bans in accordance with rules of Islam. As an Islamic state, Pakistan cannot allow molesting of its society and culture. Since its Pakistani media that has become a source of introducing and importing Hindu and western culture, it must be strictly controlled under supervision of Pakistan’s constitution and Islamic law.
Foreign Supported Insurgency and Terrorism
After 9/11 and subsequent to USA moving into neighborhood of Pakistan, Pakistan became the greatest victim of foreign supported insurgency and terrorism. Prior to 9/11, when USA left Afghanistan to shambles, Pakistan got most affected by the frail condition of Afghanistan and acted rightly to establish peace and harmony in the war torn country. After 9/11, and how USA dealt with Afghanistan, the situation changed once again, effectively putting the region again at greater risks of terrorism and insurgency. Pakistan being directly the neighbor of Afghanistan has suffered most once again.
With USA moving over to Afghanistan, India has benefited most by waging secret and proxy wars in Pakistan. India’s RAW has worked in close alliance with CIA and MOSAD to carry out systematic insurgency in Pakistan. According to Christine Fair of RAND Corporation, India is not merely issuing visas as the main activity in Afghanistan and Iran, but in fact working on supporting greater insurgency in Pakistan. According to her, Indian officials have told her privately that they are pumping money into Balochistan (to support insurgency and terrorism in Pakistan).
These facts have been further proved after the Pakistani military in Swat and South Waziristan, in which evidences of American, Indian and Israeli insurgency in Pakistan were massively unearthed. In huge amounts, Indian weaponry and currency was found. Pakistan has also caught a disturbing amount of American and Indian spies. This has rightly led Pakistan to believe that it has been imposed with an oblique war (also termed as fourth generation war) by America, Israel and India while USA apparently make believes an alliance with Pakistan.
The challenge of insurgency and terrorism is currently one of the gravest felt and experienced by Pakistan. To ensure its security, Pakistan will need to redefine its policies on dealing with insurgency and terrorism in the region. More so, it will have to revamp it policy on war on terror and alliance with USA. Ten years of alliance has given Pakistan enough facts to understand who is to be held responsible for destabilization of Pakistan and terrorism in the region.
Military Operations in Pakistan
Countries fight wars as last resort and to strengthen their security. If wars can no longer guarantee strength of a country, they must be stopped and alternatives sought.
Military operations in Pakistan were launched to secure its lands and they have but an overall picture shows a weakened Pakistan. Ever since Pakistan launched operations against militants, Pakistan’s security and integrity has been continuously damaged. Since Pakistan must be sufficiently weakened and engaged militarily, forcing Pakistan into launching nationwide operations is fundamental to the plan against it. USA has also been actively working on emphasizing that Pakistan should not feel threatened by India and that Pakistan’s focus should be on fighting wars inside the country than with anyone from outside. It is why Pakistan has been immensely pressurized and even threatened to carry out operations inside its own territory. This has not only drawn flak from people but also weakened Pakistan’s armed forces capabilities.
For Pakistan, the only logical operation was of Swat and to lesser extent of South Waziristan. USA is pressurizing Pakistan army to now move into North Waziristan and then to other parts of the country including south Punjab, Balochistan and Sindh.
As apparent, these operations are not aimed at strengthening Pakistan but at only undermining it further. Pakistan’s armed forces are already stretched to their limits and any more operations would put them at risk of rendering their control and capability ineffective. Pakistan, therefore, must refrain from launching any more military operations and focus on regaining its strength via alternative solutions.
Blackwater and Foreign Troops
Ever since US began the war on terrorism, it has relied heavily and mostly on private mercenary armies. While that may have benefited only the US in certain ways, the forces have been largely use to carry out espionage and secret operations without fear of judgment or investigation. It is important to note that Blackwater (or Xe) is directly manipulated by the CIA and it takes its orders not as a result of parliamentary decisions but singly from one person, in essence, the president of the United States. The owner of the private army, Erik Prince, considers himself to be a Christian crusader tasked with the responsibility of eliminating Muslims from the face of earth. In addition to that, the US embassy in Pakistan has been found to be running secret operations and assistance for Blackwater by distributing weaponry and ammunition.
Since the physical presence and missions of Blackwater/foreign troops is kept secret, Pakistan will continue to remain at unknown risks unless these lawless forces are removed. Pakistan must take all measures to remove Blackwater and other foreign troops from its soil. Unless it is done so, Pakistan cannot be entirely secured.
Drone Attacks
Drone attacks are an essential part of spreading American secret war in Pakistan and causing general unrest amongst civilians. These illegal aerial attacks have been termed unlawful by the UN while US continues to defy UN for its own interests. These drones are directly and secretly controlled by CIA, JSOC and Blackwater to carry out killing of targets while largely compromising on innocent civilian life. According to latest figures on pakistanbodycount.org, ever since the US started droning Pakistan, a total of 1332 (and counting) innocent civilian lives have been taken and 453 civilians have been injured (many of whom disabled for life). The success rate of these much boasted drone attacks has been a mere 2.5% (when measured against its primary objective of targeting Al-Qaeda).
Drone attacks are detrimental to the very sovereignty of Pakistan and must be stopped. It is also argued that Pakistan lacks the technology to target these drones which is by all accounts false. These drones cannot gain an unmatchable altitude or speed and can be simply brought down with a mere MANPADS system. Bringing down drones will be a matter of will and not technology for Pakistan. Pakistan must seek immediate end to drone strikes.
Threat of American Ground Invasion from Western Borders
Pakistan carried out successful operations against militants in Swat and South Waziristan; however more recently USA has pressurized and threatened Pakistan to launch a similar offensive in North Waziristan. American officials have openly accused Pakistan of pretending a war. Senator Hillary Clinton, being most phenomenal and famous for her undiplomatic behavior, has effectively threatened Pakistan of severe consequences. Pakistan has also been threatened with unilateral action. In doing so, USA has behaved immaturely by ignoring the fact that Pakistani forces are already stretched to their limits and launching more offensives would be detrimental to both Pakistan and USA. What is however important for Pakistan is the change in American tone and behavior — a tone that threatens unilateral (and un-agreed) military action against Pakistan. This is unprecedented American behavior reminding Pakistan of a bullish American reality. At the same time, ignoring India’s offensive posture against Pakistan, USA has also tried to falsely convince Pakistan that it should not feel threatened from Indian doctrines and plans.
Pakistan must ensure its national security without giving into American threats. Pakistan must realize that American ground invasions will not be one time affair. If allowed or not stopped, USA will essentially make them as regular as drone attacks. Under any circumstances, Pakistan must not allow USA of any ground invasion, not even once and should openly warn USA of severe retaliation and deadly response if anything as such is undertaken by USA. The responsibility of such attacks will also lie on America and therefore, it must refrain from taking Pakistan for granted. For Pakistan, it must understand that with America it’s simple: the more you give in, the more it demands. Pakistan must create a balance in the relationship without letting USA off the equilibrium. Also, knowing past American behavior, Pakistan can rightly assume that a unilateral action against Pakistan could very well come at a time when tensions with India are high and on the verge of war. As an effective response, Pakistan will also have to accommodate American threats in its war doctrines.
Threat to Pakistan’s Nuclear Assets and Program
Pakistan’s nuclear program has come under a lot of criticism and pressure by USA in an effort to put end to it or slow it down considerably. Due to this American pressure, Pakistan also has slowed down development in the area. For Pakistan, its nuclear program is an integral part of ensuring its national security by acting as a credible deterrent. Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal has also been racially termed as Islamic bomb. The world must understand that Pakistan faces an ever growing threat from an offensive neighbor India. Stephen Cohen, the expert on South Asia, recently disclosed that Indian general have told him that only if USA could strip Pakistan off its nuclear weapons, India will be able thrust a conventional war on Pakistan and finish the game forever.
With such deceptively secret designs against Pakistan, neither Pakistan can lower its guard nor should the world expect so. If there is one country in south Asia that has created a balance and kept Bharat from creating its hegemony in the region, it is Pakistan. Pakistan must continue to make sure that its nuclear deterrence gains more credibility and advancement. It must not allow foreign intervention in it nor should give into any pressure. Israel has undeclared secret weapons proliferated by USA and therefore, the responsibility of introducing, testing, using and proliferating nuclear weapons lie on USA in first place. Other nations have only acted to respond in their national interest and it will require USA much more than talking to actually make the world a safer place but before that, it must first shed its double faced policies.
Indian Coldstart Doctrine and Threat of War
India unveiled its doctrine of Coldstart against Pakistan in 2004. It can be concluded that the new doctrine has further strained the relations between India and Pakistan whereby putting the region at even greater risks of war. This is because Coldstart is inherently an assumptive and offensive doctrine that emphasizes upon thrusting a surprise war on Pakistan by rapidly relocating Integrated Battle Groups to war positions.
Although the doctrine appears to be a war-winning solution at first sight by initiating a sudden attack and giving least time to Pakistan to make counter plans, it wrongly assumes that India will be able to overwhelm Pakistan within few hours or keep it from responding decisively. Under conventional doctrines, Pakistan and India did come close to wars but had much time to maneuver and even avoid conflicts. This is however, not the case with a hasty Coldstart doctrine, especially against a nuclear state. Unveiling of Coldstart by India necessarily means that all Indian plans of war are already ready and it is only waiting for the right time. What is important is not if India has or has not the capability to undertake such an offensive (it may acquire that and is doing so too) but the endless repercussions of starting a war under this doctrine. Since Indian war planners are faultily assuming a conventional war under a nuclear threshold, the point for India to consider and reconsider is: Can India successfully make sure that it will be able to keep Pakistan from using nuclear weapons or even winning the offensive conventionally? History tells us that for many unknown reasons, wars can require renewed planning even before starting a war and even then the post war situation can never be predetermined. In other words, the fallout of Coldstart doctrine can never be pre-calculated (as India is assumingly trying to) but in doing so, the responsibility of an unwise war will undoubtedly lie on India. Also, where it’s true that India has drawn its inspiration of Coldstart from Israel, it has overlooked the fact that a surprise is a surprise only until it remains a secret. With Coldstart now becoming India’s official war doctrine, the element of surprise is already lost and Pakistan is equally aware.
For Pakistan, the doctrine is a signal of India choosing war over peace. The doctrine has essentially put Pakistan in an exactly opposite Hotstart mode, which means that it will now have to be ever ready round-the-clock for Indian aggression. This Indian posture has taken the region to new heights of tension and risk of war. Pakistan’s military has already aligned itself successfully to counter Indian Coldstart doctrine. In its comprehensive Azm-e-Nau 3 exercises, Pakistan implicitly answered India with the right question: Pakistan is maturely capable of countering Indian Coldstart doctrine, but is it really what India wants as a sensible nation?
But even then it means more for Pakistan. Since India wants to avoid a nuclear showdown with Pakistan, it can be rightly assumed that before starting the war, India will seek international isolation of Pakistan (much on the lines of 26/11). It will also seek American and Israeli assistance in making sure that Pakistan cannot use its nuclear weapons or even overwhelm India conventionally. It can be rightly believed that USA will make all efforts to militarily interfere in the war on behalf of India to stop Pakistan from successfully countering Indian offensive. Pakistan should expect a massive American thrust from its western borders and from inside by American Blackwater forces. Pakistan will face vicious multidimensional threats in such a scenario and will have to cater for all good and worst scenarios. Here, a lot will depend on Pakistan’s capacity to discern USA as a friend or foe. In all cases, Pakistan must make sure that its ultimate survival is not challenged and that its first response is its decisive response against all aggressors.
Indian Defence Acquisitions
To gain political sympathies globally and make viable its Coldstart doctrine, India has gained immense momentum in acquiring defence equipment from around the world. All current Indian defence acquisitions are coming precisely in line with the Indian Coldstart doctrine with heavy focus on creating Integrated Battle Groups and Independent Brigade Groups. By 2020, India plans to spend about 200 billion $ on acquiring state of the art defence equipment from USA, Israel, France, Russia and other countries. Indian generals have officially stated that they are preparing for wars with China and Pakistan simultaneously. With these designs and massive acquisitions, Indian defence budgets have effectively transformed into offense budgets for neighboring countries and in particular Pakistan that still spends a modest 5 billion $ for its defence.
The Indian weapon acquisitions pose great challenge for Pakistan. Pakistan rightly believes that India is rapidly disturbing the arms balance in the region and that it could be inflicted with a war from India while it is engaged in fighting another war on other fronts (as has happened in the past). Therefore, Pakistan must make sure that its required forces remain in place on its eastern borders and wherever required. USA has defied Pakistan in the past by luring it into help and support upon need. Pakistan must make sure it never commits the same mistake twice. No matter what, Pakistani forces should continue to make sure that their primary objective is to counter an offensive India. The world should not expect Pakistan to lower its guard while it continues to arm India with offensive doctrines and weapons.
Pakistan must continue to counter Indian war doctrines by exercising war games and developing strategic relationships with China and other countries without allowing foreign interference. Pakistan has done well in developing its defence industry into a formidable force and it must continue to do so. USA is also pressurizing Pakistan to not use its American arms against India. By doing so, USA is now honestly siding with India against Pakistan while it pressurizes Pakistan into a pretentious alliance. Pakistan must rebuff the idea and maintain that if war comes, Pakistan will do whatever is necessary to ensure its national security.
Water War on Pakistan
Receiving adequately its share of water from India under the Indus Water Treaty (IWT) is a grave challenge faced by Pakistan. The Indian hush-hush policy on water can best be explained in words of the famous Indian statecraft, Chanakya, who recommends in his notorious treatise Arthashastra: “Waging war by using rivers through stopping water to impose drought or flooding to destroy life/property, and subjugate rival states”. The absolute water hegemony India is trying to create (by taking control over Tibet as well) in the region is often rejected by India however, it is notable that numerous international bodies have recently more actively studied and questioned India’s plans to build illegal dams in violation of IWT. According to Engineers Study Forum, a water expert’s panel on rivers of India and Pakistan, India is stealing 15-20% of water from western rivers causing $ 12 billion loss to the agriculture of Pakistan. This is not only a blatant violation of the Indus Water Treaty of 1960 but also an economic set back to Pakistan. India is blocking waters from the Chenab and Jhelum rivers by constructing dams like Baghlihar, Kishen Ganga, Wuller Barrage, Pakal Dul and taking other diversion measures. Although India argues that it is not stopping Pakistan’s water, facts established over time state the otherwise. In early 2009, it was estimated that Pakistan is on the brink of a water disaster, as the availability of water in Pakistan has been declining over the past few decades, from 5,000 cubic meters per capita 60 years ago to 1,200 cubic meters per capita in 2009. By 2020, the availability of water is estimated to fall to about 800 cubic meters per capita.
India has been able to mostly maneuver the water objections because it has waged a silent and gradual water war on Pakistan (showing its effects over time). For Pakistan, it will be only a matter of time that its objections develop into a serious crisis. This has already put Pakistan at great peril of Indian water extortion. In the 2002 standoff between Indian and Pakistan, India threatened to cut off Pakistan’s water supply. India even went to the extent of threatening abrogation of the Indus Waters Treaty altogether.
For Pakistan and its agriculture, water means life. Pakistan’s economy is mainly dependent upon Agriculture (about 88 per cent of water is used in the agriculture sector). With this immense dependency on water, India’s offensive designs and threats would only serve to bring the region at greater risks of war. It is time that India reconsiders the risk it is nurturing over water. Pakistan has rightful objections over Indian water plans and to satisfy them, India should take concrete measures under strict international supervision to ensure uninterrupted water supply to Pakistan. For Pakistan, where it should take all legal measure to ensure unhindered water supply, it must also brace for worst case scenarios to counter Indian water extortion and stoppage. To do that, Pakistan will have to engage China more strongly to make sure that its water supplies from India are not threatened.
Failed State or Failed Leadership?
Pakistan’s problem is of a failed leadership. Mostly since its creation and absolutely at present, Pakistan is seeing the peak of being plagued with a visionless and blind leadership; so visionless that even though Pakistan is in itself a self-sufficient ideology, its leadership has failed to realize it and the vision of its founders. If it is for the state with natural and human resources, nature has not failed Pakistan. It is strange to see that Pakistan is struggling despite having more than 326 million barrels of oil reserves, an estimated 25.1 trillion cubic feet (TcF) of gas reserves, 185,165 million tones of coal reserves — fourth largest in the world, 4,504 million tones of copper-gold resources in Reko Diq in Balochistan, richest natural beauty and soil plains in the world, world’s sixth most populous country with labor force of more than 56 million, formidable education sector, exceptional resilience to absorb massive political corruption, natural calamities, economic crisis and more, an inherently ideology with own social-political-economic system, a nuclear state with sixth largest standing military and formidable defence infrastructure, a gifted geography and more.
For Pakistan, the moment of truth has arrived. It was born as an ideological state and in this regard, it is the most unusual country in the world. From its very conception to its creation, it remains the only lawful ideological state in the world. With Pakistan’s roots lying in the very two-nation theory and Islamic principles, Islamic law and principles are in essence the rationale and eventual policy of Pakistan. For Pakistan, there is no reason to exist if the ideology of Pakistan is taken out of it. And therefore, for Pakistan’s survival, existence and progress, its ideology has to be acknowledged, strengthened and implemented in true sense.
The Pakistani nation must realize that without reviving its ideology, Pakistan cannot wholly succeed. Pakistan will have to rid itself of the current already-decaying social-political-economic system in Pakistan and instead find its refuge in its Islamic principles of governance. To do this, Pakistani nation must, without destabilizing its country and its defence, work towards reinstating the true political and democratic system in Pakistan, as laid out by its visionary, Allama Iqbal.
Concluding Remarks
1. USA has emerged as an entirely new superpower in the 21st century. A large part of this transformation is played by 9/11, following which the American regime further extended its reach and physical presence across the globe. At present, USA has more than 1000 military bases/installations worldwide with presence of 255,065 US military personnel in more than 156 countries. If anything, it is a sign of increasing American seize on the world, which is fundamental to the Project for New American Century (PNAC). The PNAC is an initiative for creating absolute American control over the world and its resources by use of American policies, military power and even destabilization if so required. In other words and as PNAC itself puts it, PNAC is an idea for realization of the New World Order. A basic element of the PNAC (and NWO) is greater imposition of American policies on nations. Pakistan is no exception to it and to truly empower itself, Pakistan must understand how PNAC is affecting and will affect it. PNAC therefore must be taken into consideration in all future policies of Pakistan.
2. The current Pakistani relationship with USA is unbalanced with one ally largely gaining from it and the other losing. At losing end is Pakistan, which has on immense American pressure, demands and even threats, made dire compromises. These compromises have endangered the very national security of Pakistan over time. To regain and assure security of Pakistan, it will have to largely reverse these compromises. To do that, Pakistan must immediately move towards a more balanced and equal-terms partnership with USA than building onto an already uneven relationship (existing now).
3. Pakistani establishment needs to ask itself few very basic questions: USA has its own interests in region and Pakistan has its own. Are these interests really the same? Against Soviet Union, interests of Pakistan and USA converged against a common enemy and therefore the alliance was natural, balanced and equally fruitful. This is however not the case anymore. If Pakistan’s and USA’s interests are no more common, then USA cannot force Pakistan to align its policies to USA’s interests. Pakistan, therefore, must reestablish its priorities and reconsider its unbalanced alliance with USA. This is so because if it can be said with sufficient satisfaction that an alliance with USA has actually strengthened Pakistan, then the alliance is acceptable. If instead the alliance can be equated to be challenging Pakistan and its security, it is a matter to be seen into so as to turn it into a source of strength for Pakistan. If this cannot be done, Pakistan must guarantee its security in all cases, even if it means disengaging from alliance with USA. US policies have so far proven to be lethally destructive for Pakistan, essentially putting Pakistan on a track of slow but certain death. Pakistan must make sure it lives on.
4. To guarantee that Pakistan remains a close ally to USA, USA needs to change its attitude towards Pakistan. Pakistan also has to change its approach of giving in to American threats and pressure. Every country establishes some red lines before making alliances. Pakistan will also need to draw red lines to guarantee its security and USA will need to be told to not expect anything beyond these red lines. If Israel is an ally to USA and so is Pakistan, then USA will have to respect both equally without favoritism if the relationship has to build on.
5. Pakistan has to undertake steps to ensure an even relationship with USA. The first of such steps is asking USA to end the drone strikes inside Pakistan. The drone strikes have proved to be more counterproductive and need to be reconsidered. United Nations has also termed drone strikes inside Pakistan to be unlawful. Where Pakistan expects USA to respect UN’s decision, it must caution an immediate end to drone attacks. If not done so, Pakistan must make sure that its sovereignty is not violated endlessly. Eventually, this will mean a harsh response by Pakistan.
6. In the past few years USA has also established a strong mercenary force of Blackwater inside Pakistan. The American embassy in Pakistan is running clandestine missions to use civilians against the country whereby exploiting their needs. The American embassy has been caught spying and relocating/distributing large amounts of ammunition/weaponry in Pakistan for its mercenary forces. Since Blackwater is a private force with no restrictions to abide by under international law and standards, USA should immediately remove such forces from Pakistan. This will require a firm stance by Pakistan to force out Blackwater and American troops. Since Blackwater presence is critical to American plan, Pakistan must also be ready for unexpected events.
7. Pakistan has allowed USA to use its air bases in return for immense American pressure and threats. More so, the allocation of these bases is not known to the Pakistani nation. Since this is a covert deal with Pakistani nation in the dark, USA must be told to vacate any such bases. If there is a need in interest of Pakistan, the dealing must be made public and appropriate (expensive) costs demanded from USA for using Pakistani soil and airspace.
8. Pakistan has also allowed NATO supply lines to go through it without any restrictions and checking. This is suspected to contain weaponry being used against Pakistan as has been discovered in recent operations by Pakistani Army. The cost at which these supply routes are being used is free or almost free of cost. To guarantee Pakistan’s security, these supply lines must be thoroughly checked and paid for. Pakistan must check these supply lines to allow only the agreed content. Furthermore, the conditions of these line must be established by Pakistan and payments demanded accordingly.
9. Pakistan has acted to prove its alliance in the war on terror. Pakistan launched extensive anti-terror operations in several parts of the country and stood victorious. However, any further operations on war on terror are proving unproductive for Pakistan and are causing disorder in the country. In the best interests of Pakistan, it must halt any new operations inside the country and seek other peaceful ways to resolve the issue as war is no permanent solution to anything. If Pakistan so desires to carry on with an operation, it must do so on its own conditions, timeframe and demands. Such conditions must cater for border sealing before operations (to check infiltrations), adequate and unconditional supply of weapons/payments from USA and no intervention in war strategy of Pakistan. The decision of carrying out operations must lie on Pakistan and not USA. USA must be told to not intervene in Pakistan’s decisions.
10. In war on terror, USA has not truthfully acted as an ally in return. Despite several requests, USA has equipped Pakistan inadequately and poorly for military operations. USA has supplied Pakistan with conditional and inadequate weaponry, apparently on demands of India. USA should realize that it is not Bharat but Pakistan that is fighting and suffering wars in alliance with USA and therefore to continue with this alliance, Pakistan requires unconditional & adequate supply of weaponry and war payments.
11. The Pakistani nation does not feel respectful with American aid and therefore, the Pakistani leadership must deny any aid of any sort from USA. The only fund Pakistan may receive is for the war it is fighting in alliance with USA. Such funds should be called “War Dues”. Pakistan is a self reliant and respectful country and does not require or seek foreign aid of any sort.
12. Pakistan has apprehensions over India’s novice involvement in Afghanistan. India has neither any experience nor understanding of Afghanistan. For ages, Afghans have been living in comfort with Pakistan and it is instead Pakistan that has both the experience and understanding of Afghanistan. Also, Afghanistan is a country with strong religious values associated more closely to Pakistan than Bharat. Therefore, in the interest of the region, India’s exit from Afghanistan is a critical requirement. Indian interference in Afghanistan could hamper true peace efforts and instead could lead to complex proxy wars.
13. Pakistani media is betraying the nation by not playing its expected role for the country. It has constantly kept the nation in the dark by emphasizing on and magnifying non issues from present and the past. A mere look at Pakistani media yells of its utter failure by largely spending its time on inviting and engaging politicians into brawls and negative criticism on each other while putting the country at stake. The so-called experts and anchor persons spend hours on discussing and very negatively criticizing Pakistan’s past but when it comes to solutions for the future, they are themselves in the dark. Pakistan needs to massively overhaul it’s at-lose media by turning it into a source of strength for Pakistan. It needs to implement tighter checks on media in accordance with Islam and Pakistani media laws. To secure Pakistan’s projection nationally and globally, this is required.
14. The Pakistani nation needs to strongly realize that Pakistan is taken as a threat of Islamic renaissance in the western world and therefore it has several enemies working against it. Amongst the primary objectives of these anti-Pakistan forces is to undermine Pakistan’s defence i.e. its armed forces by all means. There is a lot of effort going on to turn the Pakistani populace against its armed forces so as to ultimately weaken the country’s defence. For Pakistan, its military is its first and last line of defence. Whatever the disagreements, it still has only been Pakistan’s military that has assured Pakistan’s defence since its creation. Pakistani must realize this threat and support its military all out. As long as Pakistan’s military remains intact, Pakistan’s defence will remain intact. Pakistan military on the other hand, must also make sure that it continues to assure security of Pakistan by maintaining its motto, integrity and harmony.
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